Automated hyperparameter optimization (HPO) can support practitioners to obtain peak performance in machine learning models.However, there is often a lack of valuable insights into the effects of different hyperparameters on the final model performance.This lack of explainability makes it difficult to trust and understand the automated HPO process and its results.We suggest using interpretable machine learning (IML) to gain insights from the experimental data obtained during HPO with Bayesian optimization (BO).BO tends to focus on promising regions with potential high-performance configurations and thus induces a sampling bias.Hence, many IML techniques, such as the partial dependence plot (PDP), carry the risk of generating biased interpretations.By leveraging the posterior uncertainty of the BO surrogate model, we introduce a variant of the PDP with estimated confidence bands.We propose to partition the hyperparameter space to obtain more confident and reliable PDPs in relevant sub-regions.In an experimental study, we provide quantitative evidence for the increased quality of the PDPs within sub-regions.

Hand kinematics can be measured in Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) with the intention to predict the user's intention in a reach-to-grasp action. Using multiple hand sensors, multivariate time series data are being captured. Given a number of possible actions on a number of objects, the goal is to classify the multivariate time series data, where the class shall be predicted as early as possible. Many machine-learning methods have been developed for such classification tasks, where different approaches produce favorable solutions on different data sets. We, therefore, employ an ensemble approach that includes and weights different approaches. To provide a trustworthy classification production, we present the XMTC tool that incorporates coordinated multiple-view visualizations to analyze the predictions. Temporal accuracy plots, confusion matrix heatmaps, temporal confidence heatmaps, and partial dependence plots allow for the identification of the best trade-off between early prediction and prediction quality, the detection and analysis of challenging classification conditions, and the investigation of the prediction evolution in an overview and detail manner. We employ XMTC to real-world HCI data in multiple scenarios and show that good classification predictions can be achieved early on with our classifier as well as which conditions are easy to distinguish, which multivariate time series measurements impose challenges, and which features have most impact.

Automated hyperparameter optimization (HPO) can support practitioners to obtain peak performance in machine learning models.However, there is often a lack of valuable insights into the effects of different hyperparameters on the final model performance.This lack of explainability makes it difficult to trust and understand the automated HPO process and its results.We suggest using interpretable machine learning (IML) to gain insights from the experimental data obtained during HPO with Bayesian optimization (BO).BO tends to focus on promising regions with potential high-performance configurations and thus induces a sampling bias.Hence, many IML techniques, such as the partial dependence plot (PDP), carry the risk of generating biased interpretations.By leveraging the posterior uncertainty of the BO surrogate model, we introduce a variant of the PDP with estimated confidence bands.We propose to partition the hyperparameter space to obtain more confident and reliable PDPs in relevant sub-regions.In an experimental study, we provide quantitative evidence for the increased quality of the PDPs within sub-regions.

As the global population ages, the incidence of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is rising. CKD often remains asymptomatic until advanced stages, which significantly burdens both the healthcare system and patient quality of life. This research developed an explainable machine learning system for predicting CKD in patients with cardiovascular risks, utilizing medical history and laboratory data. The Random Forest model achieved the highest sensitivity of 88.2%. The study introduces a comprehensive explainability framework that extends beyond traditional feature importance methods, incorporating global and local interpretations, bias inspection, biomedical relevance, and safety assessments. Key predictive features identified in global interpretation were the use of diabetic and ACEI/ARB medications, and initial eGFR values. Local interpretation provided model insights through counterfactual explanations, which aligned with other system parts. After conducting a bias inspection, it was found that the initial eGFR values and CKD predictions exhibited some bias, but no significant gender bias was identified. The model's logic, extracted by scoped rules, was confirmed to align with existing medical literature. The safety assessment tested potentially dangerous cases and confirmed that the model behaved safely. This system enhances the explainability, reliability, and accountability of the model, promoting its potential integration into healthcare settings and compliance with upcoming regulatory standards, and showing promise for broader applications in healthcare machine learning.

Effective monitoring of walnut water status and stress level across the whole orchard is an essential step towards precision irrigation management of walnuts, a significant crop in California. This study presents a machine learning approach using Random Forest (RF) models to map stem water potential (SWP) by integrating high-resolution multispectral remote sensing imagery from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) flights with weather data. From 2017 to 2018, five flights of an UAV equipped with a seven-band multispectral camera were conducted over a commercial walnut orchard, paired with concurrent ground measurements of sampled walnut plants. The RF regression model, utilizing vegetation indices derived from orthomosaiced UAV imagery and weather data, effectively estimated ground-measured SWPs, achieving an $R^2$ of 0.63 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.80 bars. The integration of weather data was particularly crucial for consolidating data across various flight dates. Significant variables for SWP estimation included wind speed and vegetation indices such as NDVI, NDRE, and PSRI.A reduced RF model excluding red-edge indices of NDRE and PSRI, demonstrated slightly reduced accuracy ($R^2$ = 0.54). Additionally, the RF classification model predicted water stress levels in walnut trees with 85% accuracy, surpassing the 80% accuracy of the reduced classification model. The results affirm the efficacy of UAV-based multispectral imaging combined with machine learning, incorporating thermal data, NDVI, red-edge indices, and weather data, in walnut water stress estimation and assessment. This methodology offers a scalable, cost-effective tool for data-driven precision irrigation management at an individual plant level in walnut orchards.

The machine learning modeling process conventionally culminates in selecting a single model that maximizes a selected performance metric. However, this approach leads to abandoning a more profound analysis of slightly inferior models. Particularly in medical and healthcare studies, where the objective extends beyond predictions to valuable insight generation, relying solely on a single model can result in misleading or incomplete conclusions. This problem is particularly pertinent when dealing with a set of models known as $\textit{Rashomon set}$, with performance close to maximum one. Such a set can be numerous and may contain models describing the data in a different way, which calls for comprehensive analysis. This paper introduces a novel process to explore models in the Rashomon set, extending the conventional modeling approach. We propose the $\texttt{Rashomon_DETECT}$ algorithm to detect models with different behavior. It is based on recent developments in the eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) field. To quantify differences in variable effects among models, we introduce the Profile Disparity Index (PDI) based on measures from functional data analysis. To illustrate the effectiveness of our approach, we showcase its application in predicting survival among hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) patients - a foundational case study. Additionally, we benchmark our approach on other medical data sets, demonstrating its versatility and utility in various contexts. If differently behaving models are detected in the Rashomon set, their combined analysis leads to more trustworthy conclusions, which is of vital importance for high-stakes applications such as medical applications.

Post-hoc explanation techniques such as the well-established partial dependence plot (PDP), which investigates feature dependencies, are used in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to understand black-box machine learning models. While many real-world applications require dynamic models that constantly adapt over time and react to changes in the underlying distribution, XAI, so far, has primarily considered static learning environments, where models are trained in a batch mode and remain unchanged. We thus propose a novel model-agnostic XAI framework called incremental PDP (iPDP) that extends on the PDP to extract time-dependent feature effects in non-stationary learning environments. We formally analyze iPDP and show that it approximates a time-dependent variant of the PDP that properly reacts to real and virtual concept drift. The time-sensitivity of iPDP is controlled by a single smoothing parameter, which directly corresponds to the variance and the approximation error of iPDP in a static learning environment. We illustrate the efficacy of iPDP by showcasing an example application for drift detection and conducting multiple experiments on real-world and synthetic data sets and streams.

The feature determines the vertical position of the point, and the Shapley value determines the horizontal position. The color of the point represents whether the value of the feature is low or high. Our experiment uses red and blue to represent low or high feature values, respectively. For example, for a feature Age, an older man would be drawn as red or a redder point, whereas a younger would be described as blue or a bluer point. Overlapping points are jittered in the y-axis position. The SHAP summary plot indicates a possible relationship between feature value and the impact on model prediction. However, it does not prove any causal relationship.

Learning conditional densities and identifying factors that influence the entire distribution are vital tasks in data-driven applications. Conventional approaches work mostly with summary statistics, and are hence inadequate for a comprehensive investigation. Recently, there have been developments on functional regression methods to model density curves as functional outcomes. A major challenge for developing such models lies in the inherent constraint of non-negativity and unit integral for the functional space of density outcomes. To overcome this fundamental issue, we propose Wasserstein Distributional Learning (WDL), a flexible density-on-scalar regression modeling framework that starts with the Wasserstein distance $W_2$ as a proper metric for the space of density outcomes. We then introduce a heterogeneous and flexible class of Semi-parametric Conditional Gaussian Mixture Models (SCGMM) as the model class $\mathfrak{F} \otimes \mathcal{T}$. The resulting metric space $(\mathfrak{F} \otimes \mathcal{T}, W_2)$ satisfies the required constraints and offers a dense and closed functional subspace. For fitting the proposed model, we further develop an efficient algorithm based on Majorization-Minimization optimization with boosted trees. Compared with methods in the previous literature, WDL better characterizes and uncovers the nonlinear dependence of the conditional densities, and their derived summary statistics. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the WDL framework through simulations and real-world applications.

ML/AI models are getting more complex and challenging to interpret and explain. A simple, easy-to-explain regression or decision tree model can no longer fully satisfy technical and business needs. More and more people use ensemble methods and deep neural networks to get better predictions and accuracy. However, those more complex models are hard to explain, debug, and understand. Thus, many people call these models black-box models.